Predicting and Prognosticating
If you’re curious, you can get a copy of the current issue—released to newsstands in late August—by visiting almanack.com. You can also join the Friends of The Almanack program for $15, which gets you the current hard-copy edition and access to the current digital copy online, as well as the following year’s digital edition.
After more than two centuries of publishing, The Hagers-town Town and Country Almanack looks for a place in the uncertain future of print media.
By Jennifer Mellace
Years ago, farmers looked to the moon before they did anything else. They believed that in the dark of the moon (i.e. waning), they could cut rail fences so they would stay straighter, set fence posts to resist rot, and castrate and dehorn animals for less bleeding. On the flip side, when the moon was gaining illumination—i.e., a waxing moon—it was better for fishing, harvesting horseradish, and setting eggs to hatch.
“In years past, farmers would want to know the upside [waxing] and downside [waning] of the moon,” says Charles W. Fisher, Jr., editor of The Hagers-town Town and Country Almanack. “They wanted to know because they would never roof their barn during the upside of the moon because the shingles would curl up; they’d wait until the downside of the moon because this is when the shingles were most water sealant.”
These weren’t the only decisions made on the orientation of the moon. The moon helped with weather predictions, too, and since there were no weather apps or TV weatherman 228 years ago, farmers relied on The Almanack (yes, that’s the correct spelling), which was first published in 1797 on South Potomac Street in Hargerstown. The creation of John Gruber and his partner and son-in-law Daniel May, Gruber’s Almanack has been published continuously for 228 years and is the only almanac in the United States that is still published by direct descendants of its founder.
“Gruber was a printer known mostly for religious printings in German,” says Fisher. “His first paper was in Reading, Pennsylvania, and then he was convinced to start a political paper in the DC area. That’s when Hagerstown was selected and he set up shop on South Potomac Street.”
Then, in 1797, Gruber started the second oldest almanac in the United States—the first Farmer’s Almanac on record was printed in Boston by Robert Bailey Thomas in 1792 and is still published as the Old Farmer’s Almanac by Rob Sagendorph in Dublin, New Hampshire. “There were hundreds of almanacs after that, but Hagerstown reached a wider population going as far west as Ohio and Indiana in the early distribution days,” says Fisher.
How Does He Do It?
Current Almanack prognosticator shares some secrets to his predictions.
“The initial part of forecast production is the most time-consuming,” says Chad Merrill, current prognosticator for The Hagers-town Town and Country Almanack and chief meteorologist for ABC WOAY TV in West Virginia. “I review the following year’s moon phases and other moon signals like angular diameter, which are already determined years in advance. I look for analog or past years with matching moon data as a basis for the daily forecasts. Additionally, I review the expected trends of larger weather pattern signals linked to the Pacific Ocean and the oscillation of wind patterns in the stratosphere above the tropics.”
Merrill explains that these patterns can be predicted within reason up to a year in advance and can be a great clue to winter patterns, especially.
“Finally, I keep tabs of climatology, including days each month when the warmest, coldest, and rainiest/snowiest weather takes place,” he says.
Is your head spinning yet? The amount of information Merrill tracks is kept organized through a variety of Excel spreadsheets where he does his research and identifies the days each month for dry weather, rain, snow, hot, and cold weather.
“For the analog years I chose, I review the weather maps for each day to compose the regional severe weather watch forecasts that appear in the almanack,” Merrill says.
And that’s it. Ready to tackle your own forecast?
– Jennifer Mellace
Prognosticating the Weather
Over the next two centuries The Almanack became a trusted Mid-Atlantic resource, providing farmers with seasonal weather forecasts as well as important astronomical information, which was considered vital in agricultural success in the region. In 2012 it received the Achievement in Living Traditions and Arts (ALTA) Award, which was established by Maryland Traditions in 2007 to recognize outstanding stewardship of Maryland’s living traditions.
Throughout its history, The Almanack’s accurate weather forecasts, which were, and are still, made over 14 months in advance, have been predicted by a total of eight prognosticators, the first was Charles Flack (1797-1824) and the seventh and longest standing prognosticator was Professor William E. O’Toole, III (1969-2021).
For 52 years, O’Toole, a professor of computer science at Mount St. Mary’s College in Emmitsburg, predicted and prepared all The Almanack’s upcoming weather and astronomical calculations.
“I grew up in Waynesboro [Pennsylvania] and we always had The Almanack around, so I had a general idea of how they did things,” says O’Toole. “When Jack Hershey [The Almanack’s former managing partner] contacted me about taking over as prognosticator, I said I’d be interested and asked how they do the forecast. Jack laughed and said, ‘I don’t know, but I can tell you William Shoemaker [1930-1969 prognosticator] left a pile of paperwork when he passed—I’ll get them to you.’”
O’Toole looked over Shoemaker’s work and continued his method, which used a chart by William Herschel, an English astronomer and composer, and Shoemaker’s own version that related changes in weather to time of day when the moon changes phase.
“This chart is published every year in The Almanack,” says O’Toole. “I made some modifications and tweaks over the years. I had to figure in El Nino/La Nina cycles. My biggest claim to fame was that I had a lot of physics courses, and this was important to weather and meteorology.”
O’Toole’s accuracy in predicting the weather included using specialized software to precisely calculate phases of the moon, close analysis of sunspot activity, and—as he indicated—tracking and noting of El Nino/La Nina cycles.
“Bill used old-world charts and methodology and developed computer software to help with his forecasting,” says Fisher. “He’s fascinated by astronomy and meteorology and predicted weather based on his knowledge of astronomy.”
Someone once asked O’Toole what influence the moon has on the weather.
“I asked them if they had ever heard of land tides,” he says. “Everyone knows about ocean tides, but land is more restrained than fluids. When the moon rises, six hours later, the state of Kansas rises about a foot. This was discovered by satellite. There are atmospheric tides, too, that bulge and follow the moon’s progression. The atmosphere is drawn toward the moon and has a much bigger influence than ocean tides because air is more fluid than water. If there are atmospheric tides that’s going to affect the weather.”
Over the years, O’Toole had the occasional request for a forecast outside of the range of time and place that he normally predicted. “One time somebody phoned and said, ‘my daughter’s getting married in two years and we want to set a date … could you look ahead?’ Of course, we did. I think it was close. It wasn’t the best day but it wasn’t lousy.”
O’Toole’s predictions were “uncanny” according to The Almanack’s historical records, which says that O’Toole’s level of accuracy in predicting the nature of the weather rivals many meteorological experts, other prominent almanacs, and, at times, even the National Weather Service. But he also remembers when they weren’t exactly right. When someone asked him about his forecast for June 12, 1972, when Hurricane Agnes came through—remembered for causing devastating floods across the area due to its heavy rainfall, he said, “I had predicted showers. At least I didn’t say sunny and warm.”
O’Toole announced his retirement in 2019, but it took two years to find The Almanack’s eighth and current prognosticator, Chad Merrill, who is also the chief meteorologist for ABC WOAY TV in West Virginia.
Merrill was familiar with The Almanack and often compared its accuracy to the Old Farmer’s Almanac when he was in middle school. So, when a friend spotted the opening for a new prognosticator in the Hagerstown Herald Mail and sent it to Merrill, he contacted The Almanack’s business manager Jerry Spessard and said he was interested.
Merrill always wanted to be a meteorologist but never saw himself predicting weather for an almanac. When he started, he watched how O’Toole did his forecasting, took some of that knowledge, and then created his own methodologies.
“Bill, being a computer science professor, ran things through a computer program, but I wanted to look at maps and do it the old-fashioned way,” says Merrill. “I wanted to look at things in an analytical way—it took me a couple months to figure out.”
While the forecasting approach might be different than in years past, what hasn’t changed among prognosticators is the anticipation in seeing if their predications are right.
“I really enjoy trying to predict long-term weather patterns,” says Merrill. “I like putting together the forecast and having something that I can follow and predict and see if I’m wrong and why I’m wrong. For me it’s about the verification of the forecast.”
Merrill also likes how different almanacs have specialized ways of doing things.
“Occasionally I’ll compare what they do versus what I do,” he says. “One of our goals is to get our publication out before everyone else. There is some rivalry with competition but most of them are predicting for the entire country, not just the Mid-Atlantic.”
In addition to predictions, Merrill also produces specialized content for The Almanack, including the “Conjecturer’s Column,” which gives folks an idea of what to expect during major holidays, and “The 12 Seasons of the Mid-Atlantic.” Merrill points out that seasons don’t flow like they used to, so this column gives a little explanation for each season and an idea of when each will happen.
Origins
The word “almanac” may come from the Saxon word almonaght, which means “the observation of all the moons.” The earliest records of almanacs date back to around 2000 BC, but they were likely used even earlier.
Astronomical origins
Almanacs were originally created by astronomers and astrologers who calculated the daily positions of the sun, moon, planets, and stars. They were used to predict lunar and planetary events, and to track religious holidays and weather patterns.
First printed almanac
The first printed almanac was Kalendar of Shepards, which was published in England in 1497.
Almanacs in medieval times
Medieval almanacs included information on religious and civil commemorations, zodiac signs, and blood-letting.
Benjamin Franklin
Franklin’s Poor Richard’s Almanack was a popular and profitable writing venture. The almanac featured witticisms on wisdom, prudence, and morality, written under the character of “Poor Richard’s”.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac
The Old Farmer’s Almanac has been published in the United States since 1792. It uses a formula based on Robert Bailey Thomas’s original work, but also incorporates observations of sunspots and other solar activity.
The Past and Future of The Almanack
While there are some additions to today’s almanack, the general publication has remained unchanged since its first edition in 1797. In addition to the weather predictions, it still contains favorite folk remedies and useful hints and tips for everyday life such as health hints, medical notes, and the best days for fishing, planting, weeding, and harvesting. The Almanack even has a column titled “Let Aunt Lydia Predict the Sex of Your Next Child.”
In 1962, a local Hagerstown nurse by the name of Lydia Kline (also known as Aunt Lydia) began offering soon-to-be parents an idea of what the gender of their expected child would be. This guess was based on past astrological signs and was frequently requested until medical advances and the use of ultrasound was able to remove any doubt. Aunt Lydia conceded to the advanced technology, but her services were brought back by popular demand and have since appeared in every issue since 1999.
From left to right: bottom row Bill O’Toole, Cathy Bodin, Judith D’Andrea-Fisher; standing are Toan Vu, Chad Merrill, Charles (Chad) Fisher, Debbie Spessard, Jerry Spessard.
“The Almanack has a lot of tidbits that people find interesting,” says Spessard. “There is a diverse collection of items, and we also encourage readers to submit short stories, poems, and recipes. That’s been a hit. People love having their work published.”
Other departments include information on farming dairy, livestock, and poultry, and at the beginning of each department is a tip from 50 and 100 years ago. For instance, in the current edition, the “Dairy and Livestock” column offers the following tips from 1925 and 1975, respectively.
In preparation for the arduous spring work, give the farm horse plenty of exercise. More attention should be given to grooming than was considered necessary during the winter months in order to remove the excess of dirt and hair. Trim the feet if irregular, and in the case of brittle hoofs, put on a plate to prevent breaking of the side walls. (Reprinted from The Almanack of 1925)
Dairy cows should be given about ¾ quarters of an ounce of salt for every 1,000 pounds of weight and an additional half ounce for every twenty pounds of milk the cow produces. When mixed with the normal grain mixture this should provide required amounts, however, some suggest that cows have constant access to salt on a free choice basis. (Reprinted from The Almanack of 1975)
While millions of copies have been sold, The Almanack has struggled in recent years, and Spessard, as business manager, sees this firsthand.
“The major change is the distribution system. We had 32 distributors in 1984 that distributed magazines, records, and hardcover books, and they’ve all gone away. The internet has put the printed material distributors out of business.”
Spessard now goes direct to mom-and-pop stores, which is very time consuming. National chains, like CVS and Walgreens, won’t carry The Almanack like they used to because it predicts regional weather, not national.
“The internet, social media advertising, phone calls, and mail orders are how we distribute today,” says Spessard. “We cater to an older population who isn’t internet savvy so we’re losing readership because the younger folks aren’t interested. It’s a challenge.”
O’Toole agrees. “The publishing world and circulation is not what it used to be, and the decline of readership goes hand in hand with the decline of the family farm. Corporate farms and big business have taken over and they are not our audience. But those who love the tradition continue to purchase.”
Jeff Renner of Maugansville, has been reading The Almanack for more than 65 years.
“My paternal grandparents were big influences for me and my sister to follow The Almanack,” he says.
While Renner’s favorite part is the weather conjectures each month. He’s a certified spotter for the National Weather Service in Sterling, Virginia, and for CoCoRaHS (The Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network), and he believes The Almanack has something for everyone.
“There are many unique sections that have diversities for people in various walks of life. It has been a yearly tradition for 228 years and many generations have explored the contents each and every year,” he says.
Fisher hopes the tradition passed down through the generations remains, but recognizes the mounting challenges, from distribution to the printing and mailing costs.
“This is truly a labor of love, and we want to carry on the tradition so desperately,” he says. “We never knew of a day that [The Almanack] wouldn’t be in demand.”
